ASSESSMENT OF FARMERS' COPING STRATEGIES AND PERCEPTION IN MANAGING RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND CROP YIELD IN KADUNA STATE

Purpose: To understand how Kaduna State farmers perceive and cope with unpredictable rainfall and its impact on crop yields by assessing current strategies and applying the Markov Chain Model. This paper aims to analyse the development of effective adaptation plans to improve food security and livelihoods in the face of wet and dry spells.

Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this aim, the study used both primary and secondary data. Primary data included surveys, oral interviews, and 384 questionnaires, which were administered based on the population of each LGA. The secondary data include daily rainfall from (NIMET), and crop yield data (Cowpea, Maize and Ginger) from (KADA) for a period of 30 years (1994 – 2023). Purposive sampling was deployed to select the three local government in the study area thus; Ikara, Chikun and Jema’a, percentage, graphs and charts were used for data analysis and Markov chain Model was used to analysed P(W), P(W|W), (P/D), P(D/D). from the total population of the study area, 384 questionnaires were drawn out, administered and filled, while qualitative and quantitative analytical designs were utilized in the analysis and discussion of findings.

Findings: The result reveals that most of the farmers believed that Changes in agricultural practices implemented by the farmers to adapt to wet and dry spells could help to mitigate the negative effects of wet and dry spells on crop yield and food security, while the Markov Chain model reveals that in Chikun the P(D|D) is 82%: indicates 81.9% for dry days to persist and P(W|W), is 71.2% and in ikara the P(D|D) is 36.9% while the P(W|W) is 63.1% and in Jema’a, P(D|D) is 79% compared to P(W|W) is 73% suggests that dry spells are more persistent than wet spells in Jema’a.

Research limitations/Implications: Rainfall variability, with its unpredictable dry and wet spells, significantly impacts rain-fed agriculture, leading to decreased crop yields, food insecurity, increased pest infestations, and economic hardship for farmers.

Originality/value: The study revealed the contributions and responses of farmers towards rainfall variability and effects of wet and dry spells towards mitigating against food insecurity in Kaduna State by Stake Holders.