ASSESSMENT OF THE PATTERN OF OCCURRENCE OF WET AND DRY SPELLS ON CROP YIELD IN KADUNA STATE

Purpose: To analyse historical rainfall patterns in Kaduna State to understand how frequent and prolonged wet and dry spells affect crop yields, using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought characterisation and Pearson Correlation to quantify the relationship between these spells and crop productivity, with the ultimate goal of improving agricultural planning and mitigating food insecurity.

Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this aim, the study used secondary data, and these include daily rainfall data from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), and crop yield data (Cowpea, Maize and Ginger) from Kaduna Agricultural Development Authority (KADA) for a period of 30 years (1994 – 2023). Purposive sampling was deployed to select the three local governments in the study area; thus Ikara, Chikun and Jema’a, ClimPACT2 Software, Standardised Precipitation index (SPI) and Pearson Correlation were used for the analyses.

Findings: The result reveals the pattern of rainfall in Chikun, October 1999, was considered as a very dry month with a rainfall value of -1.693, while August 1995 is classified as an extremely wet month with a rainfall value of 2.626. September 1999 is described as a very dry month in Ikara with -1.647, while June 1997 is considered as an extreme wet month with rainfall of 2.086 as compare with the SPI table and in Jemaa, May 2005 is considered as a very dry month with -1.851, while June 2022 is considered as an extremely wet month with rainfall of 3.231. The correlation between consecutive wet days and cowpea yield is weakly positive (0.108), suggesting a slight tendency for more wet days to be associated with slightly higher yields, but the relationship is not strong. While the correlation between consecutive dry days and cowpea yield is weakly positive (0.003), it suggests a negligible relationship.

Research limitations/Implications: Assessing wet and dry spell patterns reveals their significant impact on crop yields in Kaduna State by affecting soil moisture. Focusing on the relationship between wet and dry spells on crop yield helps improve crop management, inform water resource planning, and enhance climate resilience.

Originality/value: The study revealed the result of SPI across the three LGAs is in line with the findings of the relationship between wet and dry spells on crop yield across the three locations.