FLOOD VULNERABILITY AND HOUSING MARKET DYNAMICS IN PERI-URBAN IBADAN, NIGERIA

Purpose: Peri-urban Ibadan in Nigeria Flood prone on the dynamics of housing rentals in peri-urban areas through using an integrated geospatial and housing market analysis. It was carried out in Akinyele, Ido and Egbeda Local Government Areas (LGAs) which have undergone a rapid peri-urban growth and frequent flooding.

Design/methodology/approach: Flood vulnerability was analysed based on a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) based on Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-based elevation and slope parameters, whereas housing market performance was analysed on the basis of longitudinal rental data over the period 2012–2024.

Findings: The findings showed that 20-25 percent of land area in the LGAs is very prone to floods with the Ido LGA having the largest low-lying landmass. The spatial variation in housing rental values is quite high, with Akinyele having the highest rents and the highest growth rate, followed by Egbeda with average performance, and Ido with the lowest values throughout. A semi-logarithmic OLS hedonic regression (R² = 0.932, F (4,19) = 64.93, p < 0.001) established that the risk of floods is implicitly capitalised in housing rental values: an increase in the FVI by one unit is linked to an annual reduction in rental value of just around 16.3%.

Research limitations/Implications: The Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) of the study is solely based on the DEM-derived parameters of elevations and slope. This simplistic methodology ignores important hydrological and anthropogenic controls like rainfall intensity, soil permeability, and existing drainage systems, land-use alterations, and built-environment controls (e.g., impervious surfaces or informal settlements). This means that the 20–25 percent highly vulnerable land estimate can underestimate or overestimate actual flood exposure especially in extreme events.

Practical implications: The paper recommends the incorporation of flood-sensitive land management in the peri-urban planning to increase the resilience of housing markets and sustainable urban development.

Originality/value: The study combined high-resolution geospatial mapping of flood vulnerability (FVI) based on the DEM with longitudinal data of the rental market (2012 to 2024) in peri-urban Ibadan. Although flood-risk mapping and hedonic pricing research has been conducted independently in Nigeria, the direct relationship between measured flood exposure at LGA scale and observed rental relationships in three fast-growing peri-urban centres is new. The study uses implicit risk capitalisation to a West African secondary city, which has been little studied and is potentially experiencing a high level of informal land market and peri-urban expansion due to climate change.