DISTANCE-DECAY MODELLING AND CRITICAL RISK RADIUS EXTRAPOLATION OF NOISE SENSITIVITY AND HEALTH RISK INDICES IN JOS-SOUTH, NIGERIA.

Purpose: Noise pollution from commercial music outlets is an escalating public health crisis in urbanising African corridors. This study aims to transition environmental noise research from descriptive monitoring to predictive spatial-health diagnostics by quantifying acoustic profiles and deriving health-centric metrics for regulatory application.

Design/methodology/approach: To achieve this aim, acoustic measurements were conducted at 15 music shops in Jos-South, Nigeria. In-situ sound level readings were obtained, and exponential distance-decay modelling was applied to the data. The analysis focused on deriving the Noise Sensitivity Index (NSI) and Health Risk Index (HRI). A deductive research design was employed, with quantitative analytical techniques, including regression analysis, utilised to examine the relationship between source intensity, attenuation rates, and health risk radii.

Findings: The results revealed hazardous source intensities (L0) ranging from 105 to 117.25 dB, far exceeding both NESREA (75 dB) and WHO (53 dB) thresholds. The exponential decay model demonstrated a robust fit (R² = 0.87–0.95), with attenuation rates (k) between 0.032 and 0.046. A critical inverse relationship between L0 and k (rho = -0.88, p <0>

Research limitations/Implications: The limitations include a focus on a single urban corridor (Jos-South) and the specific category of commercial music outlets. The contribution to knowledge is that this study established acoustic persistence (k), driven by urban morphology, as a superior indicator of health risk than intensity alone, offering a new paradigm for spatial-health diagnostics.

Practical implications: Study recommends regulatory bodies like NESREA, adopt the Noise Sensitivity Index (NSI) and k-value modelling to support persistence-based zoning and the enforcement of mandatory acoustic buffering for commercial establishments, thereby improving public health outcomes.

Originality/value: The study revealed the critical role of attenuation rates in exacerbating noise pollution risks and provides a novel, predictive diagnostic framework (utilizing NSI and HRI) to enhance the accuracy of environmental valuation and management control in urban Nigerian settings.